Why
Ahok-Djarot Excellence in Jakarta Gubernatorial
Election First Round?
Jakarta - Jakarta Gubernatorial Election Although the official winner will be determined early March, until this moment Ahok-Djarot been declared superior by all pollsters through the quick count process. Although it has been suggested before, but still, the vote pair number 2 is nearing 50% in the middle of the case law of whack and blow strong wave of protests, an achievement that should not be underestimated.
Ahok-Djarot Raup Floating Sound, Sound Agus-Sylvi to Anies-Passwords
Median survey conducted three weeks ago, put Ahok in first place with the acquisition of 29.8% of the vote, while successive Anies-Passwords with 27.8% of the vote and Agus-Sylvi 26.1%, with 16.3% floating voice. If the total sound Agus plus Anies, will get sound counter-Ahok amounted to 53.9%.
Compare with 'quick count'. Citing a survey agency, Agus and Anies acquisition plus 16.87% 39.91% equal to 56.78% of the vote; 53.9% in the comparative survey 56.78%. That is the sound of counter Ahok simply acquire additional 2.88% of Undecided voters or relatively fixed. While Ahok-Djarot long jump by taking 13.42% of the vote.
The data also show that, Agus voice dropped almost 4% and fell to the bottom position after it was led in November. At the same time the sound Anies continue to rise until the second position and was only 2% of the votes Ahok. This means that the amount of the combined voice and Agus Anies relatively fixed, when the sounds Agus down, Anies voice rising.
Lack of Effect of Identity Politics
Why in the middle of the demonstration exposure 411, 212 and 112 that can reach millions of people, the noise remained significant Ahok? Our data indicate that only 35% of city dwellers, who made the issue of religion (identity) as the main reference in choosing a leader. This means that conservative voters modern voter appeal 35:65.
The proportion of 35%, Anies-Sandi maneuver ahead and post 212 more action closer to the right, to join the action ahead of the dawn prayers and met Rizieq 212, making conservative voters in camp Agus moved to the camp of Badwater. January data showed there was 35.5% of respondents who perceive stronghold Anies more visible support in Islamic activism wave compared with Agus camps that only 20.8%. In short Anies-Passwords are considered more 'green' than Agus-Sylvie.
Influence Debate Candidates
The second factor affecting noise spikes Ahok and Badwater is a powerful performance in a presidential debate. From about 43% -45% who admitted watching the first and second presidential debate, a majority considers Ahok - Djarot superior. There were 44.9% who consider Ahok ahead in the first presidential debate and 40.1% in the second debate. Compare with Anies 25.1% and 31.3%. While Agus had to settle for third position with 15.9% and 11%. Modern and floating voters are not affected by the issue of a clear identity flock chose Ahok and Anies post-debate.
Issues of war and attack negatives Antasari
Hectic Jakarta negative issues in the election this time, the de facto clearly be a variable that can not be viewed lightly. There is a long list of negative issues over the past year were in competition with each other. Starting from reclamation, BPK audit of the RS Source Sane, the flow of money to volunteer, blasphemy alleged corruption scandal to the latest accusations against SBY Antasari. No exaggeration when negative issues obviously affect the ride down vote 3 candidates.
Why in the context of the war issue, Ahok and Anies may increase noise and Agus declined? Data indicate precisely in the final months ahead of the election, the public is more affected by the negative issues that hit Agus camp than camp Ahok. When asked an open question, what is most remembered the negative news about the candidates, there are 26.3% who called alleged cases convolute Sylviana Murni, couples Agus. Compared with only 11.8% of cases of abuse that are undergoing trial. Anies? Relatively no.
That is why the total negative tone about Anies the lowest, 20.3% rather than 34.3% and Ahok Agus 23.3%. Apesnya again, in H-1 vote, bombs last issue released by Antasari directly to SBY. Although had denied, damage has been done. Damage evident. Agus step to further to the right to be present at the action 112 and bring the network of scholars go umrah, pupus buffeted by negative issues.
Great PR Ahok-Djarot
Will Ahok-Djarot ahead again in the second round? There is one remaining homework. From the quick count, we know there are about 43% of voters Ahok versus 57% of people who want to replace Ahok (voice Agus plus Anies). If Ahok want to win, the proportion of the public who want to replace the incumbent should be reduced. We'll see the next 2 months maneuver.
*) Rico Marbun MSc is the Executive Director of the National Media Survey (MEDIAN), lecturer at the University of Paramadina
Sources of https://news.detik.com
Jakarta - Jakarta Gubernatorial Election Although the official winner will be determined early March, until this moment Ahok-Djarot been declared superior by all pollsters through the quick count process. Although it has been suggested before, but still, the vote pair number 2 is nearing 50% in the middle of the case law of whack and blow strong wave of protests, an achievement that should not be underestimated.
Ahok-Djarot Raup Floating Sound, Sound Agus-Sylvi to Anies-Passwords
Median survey conducted three weeks ago, put Ahok in first place with the acquisition of 29.8% of the vote, while successive Anies-Passwords with 27.8% of the vote and Agus-Sylvi 26.1%, with 16.3% floating voice. If the total sound Agus plus Anies, will get sound counter-Ahok amounted to 53.9%.
Compare with 'quick count'. Citing a survey agency, Agus and Anies acquisition plus 16.87% 39.91% equal to 56.78% of the vote; 53.9% in the comparative survey 56.78%. That is the sound of counter Ahok simply acquire additional 2.88% of Undecided voters or relatively fixed. While Ahok-Djarot long jump by taking 13.42% of the vote.
The data also show that, Agus voice dropped almost 4% and fell to the bottom position after it was led in November. At the same time the sound Anies continue to rise until the second position and was only 2% of the votes Ahok. This means that the amount of the combined voice and Agus Anies relatively fixed, when the sounds Agus down, Anies voice rising.
Lack of Effect of Identity Politics
Why in the middle of the demonstration exposure 411, 212 and 112 that can reach millions of people, the noise remained significant Ahok? Our data indicate that only 35% of city dwellers, who made the issue of religion (identity) as the main reference in choosing a leader. This means that conservative voters modern voter appeal 35:65.
The proportion of 35%, Anies-Sandi maneuver ahead and post 212 more action closer to the right, to join the action ahead of the dawn prayers and met Rizieq 212, making conservative voters in camp Agus moved to the camp of Badwater. January data showed there was 35.5% of respondents who perceive stronghold Anies more visible support in Islamic activism wave compared with Agus camps that only 20.8%. In short Anies-Passwords are considered more 'green' than Agus-Sylvie.
Influence Debate Candidates
The second factor affecting noise spikes Ahok and Badwater is a powerful performance in a presidential debate. From about 43% -45% who admitted watching the first and second presidential debate, a majority considers Ahok - Djarot superior. There were 44.9% who consider Ahok ahead in the first presidential debate and 40.1% in the second debate. Compare with Anies 25.1% and 31.3%. While Agus had to settle for third position with 15.9% and 11%. Modern and floating voters are not affected by the issue of a clear identity flock chose Ahok and Anies post-debate.
Issues of war and attack negatives Antasari
Hectic Jakarta negative issues in the election this time, the de facto clearly be a variable that can not be viewed lightly. There is a long list of negative issues over the past year were in competition with each other. Starting from reclamation, BPK audit of the RS Source Sane, the flow of money to volunteer, blasphemy alleged corruption scandal to the latest accusations against SBY Antasari. No exaggeration when negative issues obviously affect the ride down vote 3 candidates.
Why in the context of the war issue, Ahok and Anies may increase noise and Agus declined? Data indicate precisely in the final months ahead of the election, the public is more affected by the negative issues that hit Agus camp than camp Ahok. When asked an open question, what is most remembered the negative news about the candidates, there are 26.3% who called alleged cases convolute Sylviana Murni, couples Agus. Compared with only 11.8% of cases of abuse that are undergoing trial. Anies? Relatively no.
That is why the total negative tone about Anies the lowest, 20.3% rather than 34.3% and Ahok Agus 23.3%. Apesnya again, in H-1 vote, bombs last issue released by Antasari directly to SBY. Although had denied, damage has been done. Damage evident. Agus step to further to the right to be present at the action 112 and bring the network of scholars go umrah, pupus buffeted by negative issues.
Great PR Ahok-Djarot
Will Ahok-Djarot ahead again in the second round? There is one remaining homework. From the quick count, we know there are about 43% of voters Ahok versus 57% of people who want to replace Ahok (voice Agus plus Anies). If Ahok want to win, the proportion of the public who want to replace the incumbent should be reduced. We'll see the next 2 months maneuver.
*) Rico Marbun MSc is the Executive Director of the National Media Survey (MEDIAN), lecturer at the University of Paramadina
Sources of https://news.detik.com
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